2026 forecast · updated Oct 29, 2026, 3:29 PM
NFL
Upcoming games
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
BAL 33%67% BUF
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
TEN 23%77% CIN
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
ARI 34%66% DAL
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
MIN 46%54% DET
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
LV 45%55% NYJ
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
CLE 30%70% PIT
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
ATL 42%58% TB
Nov 1 · 1:00 PM
IND 30%70% JAX
Nov 1 · 4:05 PM
LAC 33%67% LAR
Nov 1 · 4:25 PM
KC 37%63% DEN
Nov 1 · 4:25 PM
NE 60%40% MIA
Nov 1 · 8:20 PM
PHI 52%48% WSH
BAL 33%67% BUFNov 1 · 1:00 PMTEN 23%77% CINNov 1 · 1:00 PMARI 34%66% DALNov 1 · 1:00 PMMIN 46%54% DETNov 1 · 1:00 PMLV 45%55% NYJNov 1 · 1:00 PMCLE 30%70% PITNov 1 · 1:00 PMATL 42%58% TBNov 1 · 1:00 PMIND 30%70% JAXNov 1 · 4:05 PMLAC 33%67% LARNov 1 · 4:25 PMKC 37%63% DENNov 1 · 4:25 PMNE 60%40% MIANov 1 · 8:20 PMPHI 52%48% WSHAmerican Football Conference
| TEAM | ELO | 1-WK | TREND | RECORD | PROJ. W | RANGE | PLAYOFFS | CONF. | WIN SUPER BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 1603 | — | 5-1 | 11.9 | 10–14 | 95% | 27% | 14% | |
 Denver Broncos | 1591 | +8 | 5-2 | 11.5 | 10–13 | 92% | 20% | 11% | |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 1557 | — | 4-2 | 10.7 | 9–13 | 91% | 13% |
National Football Conference
| TEAM | ELO | 1-WK | TREND | RECORD | PROJ. W | RANGE | PLAYOFFS | CONF. | WIN SUPER BOWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 1589 | +5 | 6-0 | 12.7 | 11–15 | 97% | 30% | 15% | |
 San Francisco 49ers | 1565 | −12 | 6-1 | 11.8 | 10–14 | 94% | 19% | 9% | |
 Seattle Seahawks | 1602 | +10 | 4-3 | 10.5 | 9–12 | 76% | 15% |
Model check
How it worksSimulations10,000
Games scored107
Pick accuracy61.7%
Brier score0.235home-field baseline 0.251
- Team-level Elo: injuries, starting pitchers, quarterbacks, transfers and lineups are not modeled.
- Playoff seeding uses simulated wins with random tiebreaks; official tiebreakers are approximated.
Model roost-elo-1.0. Methodology
